Polymarket Risk Index
Composite venue-level risk assessment
72
stable
UMA oracle resolution consistency and dispute rate
pUSD peg stability and reserve attestation status
Average bid-ask spread and order book depth across markets
Wash trading detection and sybil resistance
$450M
Total OI
$43.2M
24h Volume
99.57%
API Uptime 30d
43.3%
Election Dependence
Collateral Health (pUSD)
A$0.9966
pUSD Price
Yes
Peg Intact
2 hours ago
Attestation (fresh)
+3.33%
Smart Money Float 30d
Float Trend
AccumulatingMarket Risk Table
| Market Name | Category | Open Interest | Oracle Grade | Liquidity Grade | Integrity Score↓ | Copyability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla stock above $500 by Dec? | Technology | $22.0M | C | D | 73 | D |
| US Presidential Election 2028 | Politics | $85.0M | C | A | 71 | A |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K by 2026? | Crypto | $42.0M | C | B | 68 | B |
| Will unemployment drop below 3%? | Economics | $14.5M | C | C | 64 | C |
| Oscar Best Picture 2026 | Entertainment | $2.1M | D | F | 53 | F |
| Will AI pass medical boards? | Science | $3.2M | F | F | 45 | F |
| Fed rate cut in Q3 2026? | Economics | $18.0M | B | C | 42 | C |
| SpaceX Starship orbital success? | Science | $5.8M | D | F | 38 | F |
Portfolio Risk Overlay
Thesis Exposure
Your 14 positions are effectively 4 independent bets
61.5%
Capital Deployed
Stress Scenarios
A coordinated oracle manipulation targets the largest election market. Dispute escalates, freezing $85M in OI. Your correlated political positions lose value as uncertainty spikes.
pUSD drops to $0.94 after attestation reveals reserve shortfall. All positions marked to market against devalued collateral. Smart money float drops 30% in 48h.
Your top-allocated leader (quantnina) enters a 15% drawdown. Follower panic causes liquidity withdrawal, widening spreads and compounding losses for copy-traders.